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Notes on stock timer program called Predictor, circa 1971
Description: In the early 1970s, Hugh Everett III developed a novel approach to Bayesian filter theory intended to extract information from non-linear time series. One application that he imagined for his non-linear filters was a stock market tracker that he called "Predictor". This document describes some of the features he imagined Predictor would have. There is no evidence that he followed through on this project. He created a prototype program under a $10,000 contract to J.P. Morgan & Co. But then he refused to give it to Morgan. Instead, he used it to time the market for his own interests, but it did not work as expected.
Rights: This material is provided for private study, scholarship, or research. Transmission or reproduction of any material protected by copyright beyond that allowed by fair use requires the written permission of the copyright owners and Professor Jeffrey A. Barrett. The author(s) of the material or their heirs retain copyright to this material.
Used with the permission of the estate of Hugh Everett, III.
Provenance: This document was found in the basement of Mark Everett in 2007 by Mark Everett and Peter Byrne.
Publisher: University of California, Irvine Libraries. Irvine, California 92623-9557. http://www.lib.uci.edu.